Cross-Validation of Generic Risk Assessment Tools for Animal Disease Incursion Based on a Case Study for African Swine Fever
de Vos, Clazien J. (Wageningen University & Research. Department of Bacteriology and Epidemiology)
Taylor, Rachel A. (Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). Department of Epidemiological Sciences)
Simons, Robin R. L. (Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). Department of Epidemiological Sciences)
Roberts, Helen (Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra))
Hultén, Cecilia (National Veterinary Institute (SVA))
de Koeijer, Aline A. (Wageningen University & Research. Department of Bacteriology and Epidemiology)
Lyytikäinen, Tapani (Finnish Food Authority (Ruokavirasto))
Napp Avelli, Sebastián (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries. Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal)
Boklund, Anette (University of Copenhagen. Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences)
Petie, Ronald (Wageningen University & Research. Department of Bacteriology and Epidemiology)
Sörén, Kaisa (National Veterinary Institute (SVA))
Swanenburg, Manon (Wageningen University & Research. Department of Bacteriology and Epidemiology)
Comin, Arianna (National Veterinary Institute (SVA))
Seppä-Lassila, Leena (Finnish Food Authority (Ruokavirasto))
Cabral, Maria (Wageningen University & Research. Department of Bacteriology and Epidemiology)
Snary, Emma L. (Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA))

Data:	2020
Resum:	In recent years, several generic risk assessment (RA) tools have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk of multiple infectious animal diseases allowing for a rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases. Although these tools were originally developed for different purposes, they can be used to answer similar or even identical risk questions. To explore the opportunities for cross-validation, seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) to the Netherlands and Finland for the 2017 situation and for two hypothetical scenarios in which ASF cases were reported in wild boar and/or domestic pigs in Germany. The generic tools ranged from qualitative risk assessment tools to stochastic spatial risk models but were all parameterized using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. A comparison of absolute results was not possible, because output parameters represented different endpoints, varied from qualitative probability levels to quantitative numbers, and were expressed in different units. Therefore, relative risks across countries and scenarios were calculated for each tool, for the three pathways most in common (trade in live animals, trade in animal products, and wild boar movements) and compared. For the 2017 situation, all tools evaluated the risk to the Netherlands to be higher than Finland for the live animal trade pathway, the risk to Finland the same or higher as the Netherlands for the wild boar pathway, while the tools were inconclusive on the animal products pathway. All tools agreed that the hypothetical presence of ASF in Germany increased the risk to the Netherlands, but not to Finland. The ultimate aim of generic RA tools is to provide risk-based evidence to support risk managers in making informed decisions to mitigate the incursion risk of infectious animal diseases. The case study illustrated that conclusions on the ASF risk were similar across the generic RA tools, despite differences observed in calculated risks. Hence, it was concluded that the cross-validation contributed to the credibility of their results.
Nota:	Altres ajuts: CoVetLab/2017-5
Nota:	Altres ajuts: GP/EFSA/AFSCO/2017/01
Nota:	Altres ajuts: DMA/KB-21-006-028
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	African swine fever ; Cross-validation ; Livestock diseases ; Generic model ; Introduction risk ; Model uncertainty ; Risk assessment
Publicat a:	Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Vol. 7 (february 2020) , ISSN 2297-1769

DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.00056
PMID: 32133376

14 p, 1.8 MB

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