Searching for a better life : predicting international migration with online search keywords
Böehme, Marcus (German Federal Ministry of Finance)
Groeger, André (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
Stöhr, Tobias (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Data:	2020
Resum:	Migration data remains scarce, particularly in the context of developing countries. We demonstrate how geo-referenced online search data can be used to measure migration intentions in origin countries and to predict bilateral migration flows. Our approach provides strong additional predictive power for international migration shows when compared to reference models from the migration and trade literature. We provide evidence, based on survey data, that our measures partly reflect genuine migration intentions and that they outperform any of the established predictors of migration flows in terms of predictive power, especially in the bilateral within dimension. Our findings contribute to the literature by (1) providing a novel way for the measurement of migration intentions, (2) allowing real-time predictions of current migration flows ahead of official statistics, and (3) improving the performance of conventional models of migration flows.
Ajuts:	Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad ECO2015-67602-P
Nota:	Altres ajuts: SEV-2015-0563
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Matèria:	International migration ; Migration intention ; Google trends
Publicat a:	Journal of development economics, Vol. 142 Núm. 102347 (January 2020)

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.04.002

Postprint 42 p, 578.0 KB

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