Regulation strength and technology creep play key roles in global long-term projections of wild capture fisheries
Scherrer, Kim J. N. (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Galbraith, Eric (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)

Date:	2020
Abstract:	Many studies have shown that the global fish catch can only be sustained with effective regulation that restrains overfishing. However, the persistence of weak or ineffective regulation in many parts of the world, coupled with changing technologies and additional stressors like climate change, renders the future of global catches uncertain. Here, we use a spatially resolved, bio-economic size-spectrum model to shed light on the interactive impacts of three globally important drivers over multidecadal timescales: imperfect regulation, technology-driven catchability increase, and climate change. We implement regulation as the adjustment of fishing towards a target level with some degree of effectiveness and project a range of possible trajectories for global fisheries. We find that if technological progress continues apace, increasingly effective regulation is required to prevent overfishing, akin to a Red Queen race. Climate change reduces the possible upper bound for global catches, but its economic impacts can be offset by strong regulation. Ominously, technological progress under weak regulation masks a progressive erosion of fish biomass by boosting profits and generating a temporary stabilization of global catches. Our study illustrates the large degree to which the long-term outlook of global fisheries can be improved by continually strengthening fisheries regulation, despite the negative impacts of climate change.
Grants:	European Commission 682602
Note:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Note:	Identificadors digitals: Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601) - BIGSEA project
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Published in:	ICES Journal of Marine Science, Vol. 77, Issue 7-8 (December 2020) , p. 2518-2528, ISSN 1095-9289

DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsaa109

11 p, 569.5 KB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) > Integrated Earth System Dynamics Laboratory (IESD)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles