D4.2 Reports on (1) The impact of family migration and family reunification of refugees and other migrants; (2) Secondary movements within the European Union
Detlefsen, Lena (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
Backhaus, Andreas (Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung)
Heidland, Tobias (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
Carrera, Sergio (Centre for European Policy Studies)
Luk, Ngo Chun (Centre for European Policy Studies)
Mager, Friederike (Centre for European Policy Studies)
Stefan, Marco (Centre for European Policy Studies)

Data:	2021
Resum:	Family migration constitutes the largest migration inflow to OECD countries, accounting for almost half the immigration in recent years. Between 2014 and 2018, family migration increased in most countries, leading to worries about large migration flows in future years following the large numbers of asylum applications in E. U. countries during the mid-2010s. That led some countries to restrict family reunification programs, despite a lack of empirical estimates of the numbers of family migrants that could realistically be expected. This paper provides predictions of how large an increase in the number of immigrants through family reunification and reproduction can be expected. A common stereotype that policymakers and voters have in mind when considering migrants, especially asylum seekers and refugees, is that of a single, typically male, young person. Reality is more complex, with many migrations taking place as a core family. To establish a more representative picture closer to the facts, it is thus important to distinguish to what extent the structure of migrants' families is driven by family reunification and reproduction that only occurs after the arrival in the destination country, respectively. To assess these questions, we combine data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees with fertility estimates from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital and make predictions about family reunification and delayed fertility. We build thereby on the literature on fertility patterns of migrants and assume two different fertility scenarios: fertility under adaptation and fertility under socialization. We estimate that in general, for each asylum seeker and refugee, 0. 19 family members can be expected to come to Germany through family reunification. In addition, between 0. 20 to 0. 47 new family members can be expected due to future fertility, depending on the scenario. We also provide further country and education specific predictions building on regression analysis. Our results imply that family reunification and delayed fertility can increase the asylum seeker and refugee stock in the destination countries, numbers are however lower than often expected.
Ajuts:	European Commission 882986
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Llengua:	Anglès
Col·lecció:	ITFLOWS Project
Document:	Informe

278 p, 7.1 MB

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