Final Size for Epidemic Models with Asymptomatic Transmission
Barril, Carles (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques)
Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre (Université de Paris. Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions)
Cuadrado Gavilán, Sílvia (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques)

Date:	2023
Abstract:	The final infection size is defined as the total number of individuals that become infected throughout an epidemic. Despite its importance for predicting the fraction of the population that will end infected, it does not capture which part of the infected population will present symptoms. Knowing this information is relevant because it is related to the severity of the epidemics. The objective of this work is to give a formula for the total number of symptomatic cases throughout an epidemic. Specifically, we focus on different types of structured SIR epidemic models (in which infected individuals can possibly become symptomatic before recovering), and we compute the accumulated number of symptomatic cases when time goes to infinity using a probabilistic approach. The methodology behind the strategy we follow is relatively independent of the details of the model.
Grants:	Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación PID2021-123733NB-I00 Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2021/SGR-00113
Note:	Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Final infection size ; Symptomatic population ; Reproduction number
Published in:	Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Vol. 85 (May 2023) , art. 52, ISSN 1522-9602

DOI: 10.1007/s11538-023-01159-y
PMID: 37156965

28 p, 515.2 KB

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