An Integrated Ecological Niche Modelling Framework for Risk Mapping of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus Exposure in African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem
Carrera Faja, Laura (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia Animals)
Yesson, Chris (Zoological Society of London. Institute of Zoology)
Jones, Bryony A. (WOAH Collaborating Centre in Risk Analysis and Modelling. Department of Epidemiological Sciences)
Benfield, Camilla T. O. (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)
Kock, Richard A. (University of London. Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences)

Data:	2023
Resum:	Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants that threatens livelihoods and food security in developing countries and, in some cases, wild ungulate species conservation. The Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem (GSME) encompasses one of the major wildlife populations of PPR virus (PPRV)-susceptible species left on earth, although no clinical disease has been reported so far. This study aimed to gain further knowledge about PPRV circulation in the GSME by identifying which factors predict PPRV seropositivity in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). Following an ecological niche modeling framework to map host-pathogen distribution, two models of PPRV exposure and buffalo habitat suitability were performed using serological data and buffalo censuses. Western Maasai Mara National Reserve and Western Serengeti National Park were identified as high-risk areas for PPRV exposure in buffalo. Variables related to wildlife-livestock interaction contributed to the higher risk of PPRV seropositivity in buffalo, providing supportive evidence that buffalo acquire the virus through contact with infected livestock. These findings can guide the design of cost-effective PPRV surveillance using buffalo as a sentinel species at the identified high-risk locations. As more intensive studies have been carried out in Eastern GSME, this study highlights the need for investigating PPRV dynamics in Western GSME.
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	African buffalo ; Disease risk mapping ; Spatial epidemiology ; Maxent ; Peste des petits ruminants virus ; PPR ; PPRV ; Serengeti-Mara
Publicat a:	Pathogens, Vol. 12 (december 2023) , ISSN 2076-0817

DOI: 10.3390/pathogens12121423
PMID: 38133306

16 p, 3.4 MB

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