Living smaller, consuming more? : The energy implications of aging and shrinking households in Spain
Ramos Martín, Jesús (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Matsumoto, Shigeru (Aoyama Gakuin University. Department of Economics)
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia i d'Història Econòmica

Date:	2026
Abstract:	Accurate projections of residential energy consumption are crucial for achieving decarbonization targets; however, most models overlook demographic dynamics, particularly changes in household composition, which significantly impact energy demand. This study addresses this gap by integrating demographic projections into bottom-up energy forecasts for Spain's residential sector from 2021 to 2039. By disaggregating households into nine types based on size and age structure, the model captures heterogeneous energy use patterns and their evolution over time. The results reveal a counterintuitive outcome: although projections indicate significant reductions in per-person and per-household energy consumption, total residential energy consumption is expected to increase by 0. 80% over the 2024-2039 period. This is a direct consequence of the composition effect driven by sustained demographic change, specifically, the growing prevalence of smaller, higher-per-capita-use single-person and elderly households, which reduces economies of scale. These structural shifts effectively offset technical efficiency gains and behavioral changes, preventing an overall decline in energy demand. To meet Spain's target of a 1. 69% annual reduction in residential energy use by 2030, per-household consumption must decrease by more than 3. 4% annually, more than twice the historical rate. This research underscores the need to align housing and energy policies with demographic trends. Targeted strategies, such as promoting smaller, energy-efficient dwellings and accelerating building retrofits, are essential for achieving climate goals in an aging and increasingly fragmented society.
Grants:	Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades TED2021-132032A-I00 Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades CEX2024-001506-MCEX2024-001506-M Generalitat de Catalunya 2021/SGR-00141
Note:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Households ; Residential energy consumption ; Household type distribution ; Energy consumption scenarios ; Aging ; Behavioral changes ; ODS 7: Energía asequible y no contaminante ; ODS 13: Acción por el clima
Published in:	Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 135 (May 2026) , art. 104660, ISSN 2214-6326

DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104660

12 p, 2.9 MB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles