Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!
Keenan, Trevor (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)
Serra-Díaz, Josep M. (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Unitat de Botànica)
Lloret Maya, Francisco (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)
Ninyerola i Casals, Miquel (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)
Sabaté i Jorba, Santi (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals)

Date: 2011
Description: 15 pag.
Abstract: Assessing the potential future of current forest stands is a key to design conservation strategies and understanding potential future impacts to ecosystem service supplies. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean basin, where important future climatic changes are expected. Here, we assess and compare two commonly used modeling approaches (niche- and process-based models) to project the future of current stands of three forest species with contrasting distributions, using regionalized climate for continental Spain. Results highlight variability in model ability to estimate current distributions, and the inherent large uncertainty involved in making projections into the future. CO2 fertilization through projected increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations is shown to increase forest productivity in the mechanistic process-based model (despite increased drought stress) by up to three times that of the non-CO2 fertilization scenario by the period 2050–2080, which is in stark contrast to projections of reduced habitat suitability from the niche-based models by the same period. This highlights the importance of introducing aspects of plant biogeochemistry into current niche-based models for a realistic projection of future species distributions. We conclude that the future of current Mediterranean forest stands is highly uncertain and suggest that a new synergy between niche- and process-based models is urgently needed in order to improve our predictive ability.
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/FP7/212535
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/FP5/506675
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/FP5/00075
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció MICINN/CGL2009-08191
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció MCYT/CGL2006-01293
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció AGAUR/2009/SGR-1511
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció MICINN/CSD2008-00040
Rights: Tots els drets reservats
Language: Anglès.
Document: article ; recerca ; publishedVersion
Subject: BIOMOD ; CO2 fertilization ; Drought ; GOTILWA1 ; Niche-based models ; Pinus halepensis ; Pinus sylvestris ; Quercus ilex ; Species distribution ; Boscos ; Mediterrània ; Medi ambient
Published in: Global Change Biology, Vol. 17, Núm. 1 (2011) , p. 565-579, ISSN 1365-2486



15 p, 361.8 KB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (scientific output) > Experimental sciences > Grupo de Investigación Métodos y Aplicaciones en Teledetección y Sistemas de Información Geográfica (GRUMETS)
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (scientific output) > Experimental sciences > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles

 Record created 2011-07-21, last modified 2019-02-21



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