Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war
Scherrer, Kim J. N. (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Harrison, Cheryl (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science (USA))
Heneghan, Ryan (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Galbraith, Eric (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Bardeen, Charles G. (University of Colorado. Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (USA))
Coupe, Joshua (Rutgers University. Department of Environmental Sciences (USA))
Jägermeyr, Jonas (National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Goddard Institute for Space Studies (USA))
Lovenduski, Nicole S. (University of Colorado. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (USA))
Luna, August (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science (USA))
Robock, Alan (Rutgers University. Department of Environmental Sciences (USA))
Stevens, Jessica (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science (USA))
Stevenson, Samantha (University of California. Bren School (USA))
Toon, Owen B. (University of Colorado. Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (USA))
Xia, Lili (Rutgers University. Department of Environmental Sciences (USA))

Data:	2020
Resum:	Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.
Ajuts:	European Commission 682602 European Commission. Horizon 2020 682602 European Research Council 682602 Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación PCIN-2017-115
Nota:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Nota:	Identificadors digitals: Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601) - BIGSEA project
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Food from the ocean ; Fisheries management ; Abrupt climate change ; Nuclear winter ; Global food security
Publicat a:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 117, Issue 47 (November 2020) , p. 29748-29758, ISSN 1091-6490

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008256117
PMID: 33168735

11 p, 1.5 MB

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