Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening
Louro, Javier (Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Catalunya))
Román, Marta (Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Catalunya))
Posso, Margarita (Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Catalunya))
Vázquez, Ivonne (Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Catalunya))
Saladié, Francina (Institut d'Investigació Sanitària Pere Virgili)
Rodriguez-Arana, Ana (Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Catalunya))
Quintana Ruiz, Maria Jesús (Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau)
Domingo, Laia (Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Catalunya))
Baré i Mañas, Marisa (Parc Taulí Hospital Universitari. Institut d'Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí (I3PT))
Marcos-Gragera, Rafael (Institut Català d'Oncologia)
Vernet-Tomas, María (Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Catalunya))
Sala, Maria (Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Catalunya))
Castells, Xavier (Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Catalunya))
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Date:	2021
Abstract:	Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women's individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammography screening. Retrospective cohort study of 121,969 women aged 50 to 69 years, screened at the long-standing population-based screening program in Spain between 1995 and 2015 and followed up until 2017. We used partly conditional Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and individual risks for age, family history of breast cancer, previous benign breast disease, and previous mammographic features. We internally validated our model with the expected-to-observed ratio and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. During a mean follow-up of 7. 5 years, 2,058 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. All three risk factors were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with the highest risk being found among women with family history of breast cancer (aHR: 1. 67), a proliferative benign breast disease (aHR: 3. 02) and previous calcifications (aHR: 2. 52). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio ranging from 0. 99 at 2 years to 1. 02 at 20 years) but slightly overestimated the risk in women with proliferative benign breast disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 58. 7% to 64. 7%, depending of the time horizon selected. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the short- and long-term risk of breast cancer in women eligible for mammography screening using information routinely reported at screening participation. The model could help to guiding individualized screening strategies aimed at improving the risk-benefit balance of mammography screening programs.
Grants:	Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad PI15/00098 Instituto de Salud Carlos III PI17/00047
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Published in:	PloS one, Vol. 16 (march 2021) , ISSN 1932-6203

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248930
PMID: 33755692

14 p, 762.3 KB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Health sciences and biosciences > Parc Taulí Research and Innovation Institute (I3PT
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Health sciences and biosciences > Institut de Recerca Sant Pau
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles