Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability : the case of Brazil
Batyra, Ewa (Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics)
Tiziana, Leone
Myrskylä, Mikko

Date:	2022
Description:	19 pàg.
Abstract:	The Brazilian period total fertility rate (PTFR) dropped to 1. 8 in 2010 (1. 5 among those with high education). Due to shifts in fertility timing, the PTFR may provide a misleading picture of fertility levels. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR)-a measure free from tempo distortions-and for educational differences in completed fertility remain unknown. Due to data limitations, CTFR forecasts in low- and middle-income countries are rare. We use Brazilian censuses to reconstruct fertility rates indirectly and forecast the CTFR for all women and by educational level. Four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is unlikely to fall to the level of the PTFR. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to be stark, at 0. 7-0. 9, larger than in many high-income countries with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted in settings with limited data and call for more research on educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries.
Grants:	Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades FJC2019-040652-I European Research Council H2020-ERC-2020-STG-GA-948557-MINEQ
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Cohort fertility ; Forecasting ; Brazil ; Education ; Census data ; IPUMS
Published in:	Population Studies, September (2022) , ISSN 1477-4747

DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2104916

19 p, 2.5 MB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Social and Legal Sciences > Centre for Demographic Studies (CED-CERCA)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles