Coupling a water balance model with forest inventory data to predict drought stress : the role of forest structural changes vs. climate changes
Cáceres Ainsa, Miquel de (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Martínez Vilalta, Jordi, 1975- (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)
Coll, Lluís (Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya)
Llorens García, Pilar (Institut de Diagnosi Ambiental i Estudis de l'Aigua)
Casals, Pere 1963- (Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya)
Poyatos, Rafael (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Pausas, Juli G (Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación)
Brotons, Lluís (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)

Data:	2015
Resum:	Mechanistic water balance models can be used to predict soil moisture dynamics and drought stress in individual forest stands. Predicting current and future levels of plant drought stress is important not only at the local scale, but also at larger, landscape to regional, scales, because these are the management scales at which adaptation and mitigation strategies are implemented. To obtain reliable predictions of soil moisture and plant drought stress over large extents, water balance models need to be complemented with detailed information about the spatial variation of vegetation and soil attributes. We designed, calibrated and validated a water balance model that produces annual estimates of drought intensity and duration for all plant cohorts in a forest stand. Taking Catalonia (NE Spain) as a case study, we coupled this model with plot records from two Spanish forest inventories in which species identity, diameter and height of plant cohorts were available. Leaf area index of each plant cohort was estimated from basal area using species-specific relationships. Vertical root distribution for each species in each forest plot was estimated by determining the distribution that maximized transpiration in the model, given average climatic conditions, soil attributes and stand density. We determined recent trends (period 1980-2010) in drought stress for the main tree species in Catalonia; where forest growth and densification occurs in many areas as a result of rural abandonment and decrease of forest management. Regional increases in drought stress were detected for most tree species, although we found high variation in stress changes among individual forest plots. Moreover, predicted trends in tree drought stress were mainly due to changes in leaf area occurred between the two forest inventories rather than to climatic trends. We conclude that forest structure needs to be explicitly considered in assessments of plant drought stress patterns and trends over large geographic areas, and that forest inventories are useful sources of data provided that reasonably good estimates of soil attributes and root distribution are available. Our approach coupled with recent improvements in forest survey technologies may allow obtaining spatially continuous and precise assessments of drought stress. Further efforts are needed to calibrate drought-related demographic processes before water balance and drought stress estimates can be fully used for the accurate prediction of drought impacts.
Ajuts:	Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia CSD2008-00040 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CGL2010-16373 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CGL2011-29539 Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación CGL2012-39938-C02-01 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad RYC-2012-11109 Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia CGL2013-46808-R
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Matèria:	Drought stress ; Forest inventory data ; Mediterranean forests ; Water balance model
Publicat a:	Agricultural and forest meteorology, Vol. 213 (Nov. 2015) , p. 77-90, ISSN 0168-1923

DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.06.012

Post-print 60 p, 4.7 MB

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Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
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