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Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon basin : a multi-model analysis with a new set of land-cover change scenarios
Guimberteau, Matthieu (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L'Environnement)
Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L'Environnement)
Ducharne, Agnès (École Pratique des Hautes Études)
Boisier, Juan Pablo (Universidad de Chile. Departamento de Geofísica)
Dutra Aguiar, Ana Paula (Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre)
Biemans, Hester (Wageningen UR. Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management Group)
De Deurwaerder, Hannes (Rijksuniversiteit te Gent. Department of Applied Ecology and Environmental Biology)
Galbraith, David (University of Leeds. School of Geography)
Kruijt, Bart (Wageningen UR. Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management Group)
Langerwisch, Fanny (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Poveda, German (Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Escuela de Geociencias y Medio Ambiente)
Rammig, Anja (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Rodriguez, Daniel Andres (Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre)
Tejada, Graciela (Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre)
Thonicke, Kirsten (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Von Randow, Celso (Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre)
Von Randow, Rita C. S. (Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre)
Zhang, Ke (Harvard University. Organismic & Evolutionary Biology)
Verbeeck, Hans (Rijksuniversiteit te Gent. Department of Applied Ecology and Environmental Biology)

Date: 2016
Abstract: 15/03/2017. Montse Reche. Però a Sherpa/Romeo diu que es pot penjar el prepint de l'autor ?¿.
Abstract: Neglecting any atmospheric feedback to precipitation, deforestation in Amazon, i. e. , replacement of trees by shallow rooted short vegetation, is expected to decrease evapotranspiration (ET). Under energy-limited conditions, this process should lead to higher soil moisture and a consequent increase in river discharge. The magnitude and sign of the response of ET to deforestation depends both on land-cover change (LCC), and on climate and CO2 concentration changes in the future. Using three regional LCC scenarios recently established for the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon, we investigate the combined impacts of deforestation and climate change on the surface hydrology of the Amazon basin for this century at sub-basin scale. For each LCC scenario, three land surface models (LSMs), LPJmL-DGVM, INLAND-DGVM and ORCHIDEE, are forced by bias-corrected climate simulated by three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for different scenarios of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4). The GCM results indicate that by 2100, without deforestation, the temperature will have increased by a mean of 3. 3 °C (a range of 1. 7 to 4. 5 °C) over the Amazon basin, intensifing the regional water cycle, whereby precipitation, ET and runoff increase by 8. 5, 5. 0 and 14 %, respectively. However, under this same scenario in south-east Amazonia, precipitation decreases by 10 % at the end of the dry season and the three LSMs estimate a 6 % decrease of ET, which does not compensate for lower precipitation. Runoff in southeastern Amazonia decreases by 22 %, reducing minimum river discharge from the Rio Tapajós catchment by 31 % in 2100. The low LCC scenario projects a 7 % decline in the area of Amazonian forest by 2100, as compared to 2009; for the high LCC scenario the projection is a 34 % decline. In the extreme deforestation scenario, forest loss partly offsets (−2. 5 %) the positive effect of climate change on increasing ET and slightly amplifies (+3. 0 %) the increase of runoff. Effects of deforestation are more pronounced in the southern part of the Amazon basin, in particular in the Rio Madeira catchment where up to 56 % of the 2009 forest area is lost. The effect of deforestation on water budgets is more severe at the end of the dry season in the Tapajós and the Xingu catchments where the decrease of ET due to climate change is amplified by forest area loss. Deforestation enhances runoff during this period (+35 %) offsetting the negative effect of climate change (−22 %), and balances the decrease of low flows in the Rio Tapajós.
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/FP7/282664
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/FP7/610028
Rights: Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. Creative Commons
Language: Anglès.
Document: article ; recerca ; publishedVersion
Published in: Hydrology and earth system sciences, Vol. 21, núm 3 (August 2016) , p. 1455-1475, ISSN 1027-5606

DOI: 10.5194/hess-2016-430


21 p, 11.0 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (scientific output) > Experimental sciences > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals) > Imbalance-P
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles

 Record created 2016-10-13, last modified 2019-07-20



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