Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing
Lade, Steven J. (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Donges, Jonathan F. Donges (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Fetzer, Ingo (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Anderies, John M. (Arizona State University. School of Sustainability)
Beer, Christian (Stockholm University. Bolin Centre for Climate Research)
Cornell, Sarah E. (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Gasser, Thomas (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Àustria))
Norberg, Jon (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Richardson, Katherine Richardson (Statens Naturhistoriske Museum)
Steffen, Will (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre)

Date:	2018
Abstract:	Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth System's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we construct a stylized global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against complex ESMs, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon-cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. We use our results to analytically study the relative strengths of different climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and how they may change in the future, as well as to compare different feedback formalisms. Simple models such as that developed here also provide 'workbenches' for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the Planetary Boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in complex ESMs.
Grants:	European Commission 610028
Note:	Paper contact with cynthia festin: festin@iiasa.ac.at
Note:	Agraïments: The research leading to these results has received funding from the Stordalen Foundation via the Planetary Boundary Research Network (PB.net), the Earth League's EarthDoc programme, the Leibniz Association (project DOMINOES), Project Grant 2014-589 from the Swedish Research Council Formas, and a core grant to the Stockholm Resilience Centre by Mistra. We thank Malin Ödalen for her comments on the manuscript.
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Published in:	Earth system dynamics, Vol. 9 (2018) , p. 507-523, ISSN 2190-4979

DOI: 10.5194/esd-2017-78

23 p, 411.3 KB

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