A network epidemic model with preventive rewiring: comparative analysis of the initial phase
Britton, Tom (Stockholm University. Department of Mathematics)
Juher, David (Universitat de Girona. Departament d'Informàtica, Matemàtica Aplicada i Estadística)
Saldaña, Joan (Universitat de Girona. Departament d'Informàtica, Matemàtica Aplicada i Estadística)

Data:	2017
Resum:	This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected individuals at some rate so-called preventive rewiring. The models are denoted SIR- and SEIR- and we focus attention on the early stages of an outbreak, where we derive expression for the basic reproduction number R_0 and the expected degree of the infectious nodes E(D_I) using two different approximation approaches. The first approach approximates the early spread of an epidemic by a branching process, whereas the second one uses pair approximation. The expressions are compared with the corresponding empirical means obtained from stochastic simulations of SIR- and SEIR- epidemics on Poisson and scale-free networks. For SIR- and the SEIR- case without rewiring of exposed nodes, both approaches predict the same epidemic threshold and the same E(D_I), the latter being very close to the observed mean degree D_I in simulated epidemics over Poisson networks. Above the epidemic threshold, pairwise models overestimate the value of R_0 obtained from the simulations, which turns out to be very close to the one predicted by the branching process approximation. For SEIR- where exposed individuals also rewire (perhaps unaware of being infected), the two approaches give different epidemic thresholds, with the branching process approximation being more in agreement with simulations.
Ajuts:	Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MTM2011-27739-C04-03 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MTM2014-52402-C3-3-P Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2014/SGR-1083 Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2014/SGR-555
Nota:	Aquest article té un Erratum accessible a: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-017-0295-0
Nota:	Agraïments: T.B. is grateful to Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (Grant P12-0705:1) for financial support.
Drets:	Tots els drets reservats.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Matèria:	Branching process ; Network epidemic models ; Pair approximation ; Preventive rewiring
Publicat a:	Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Vol. 78 Núm. 12 (2017) , p. 2427-2454, ISSN 1522-9602

Erratum: https://ddd.uab.cat/record/182535
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-016-0227-4

Postprint 25 p, 826.6 KB

El registre apareix a les col·leccions:
Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències > GSD (Grup de sistemes dinàmics)
Articles > Articles de recerca
Articles > Articles publicats