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Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Frieler, Katja (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Lange, Stefan (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Piontek, Franziska (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Reyer, Christopher P. O. (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Schewe, Jacob (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Warszawski, Lila (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Zhao, Fang (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Chini, Louise (University of Maryland. Department of Geographical Sciences)
Denvil, Sebastien (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace)
Emanue, Kerry (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Geiger, Tobias (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Halladay, Kate (Great Britain. Meteorological Office)
Hurtt, George (University of Maryland. Department of Geographical Sciences)
Mengel, Matthias (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Murakami, Daisuke (Tōkei Sūri Kenkyūjo (Japan))
Ostberg, Sebastian (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Popp, Alexander (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Riva, Riccardo (Technische Universiteit Delft)
Stevanovic, Miodrag (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Suzuki, Tatsuo (Kaiyō Kenkyū Kaihatsu Kikō (Japan))
Volkholz, Jan (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Burke, Eleanor (Great Britain. Meteorological Office)
Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L’Environnement)
Ebi, Kristie (University of Washington)
Eddy, Tyler D. (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology)
Elliott, Joshua (University of Chicago)
Galbraith, Eric D. (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Gosling, Simon N. (University of Nottingham)
Hattermann, Fred (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Hickler, Thomas (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre)
Hinkel, Jochen (Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems)
Hof, Christian (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre)
Huber, Veronika (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Jägermeyr, Jonas (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Krysanova, Valentina (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Marcé, Rafael (Institut Català de Recerca de l'Aigua)
Schmied, Hannes Müller (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre)
Mouratiadou, Ioanna (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Pierson, Don (Uppsala University)
Tittensor, Derek P. (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology)
Vautard, Robert (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L’Environnement)
Van Vliet, Michelle (Wageningen Universiteit)
Biber, Matthias F. (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre)
Betts, Richard A. (Great Britain. Meteorological Office)
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Deryng, Delphine (Columbia University)
Frolking, Steve (University of New Hampshire)
Jones, Chris D. (Great Britain. Meteorological Office)
Lotze, Heike K. (Dalhousie University)
Lotze-Campen, Hermann (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Sahajpa, Ritvik (University of Maryland. Department of Geographical Sciences)
Thonicke, Kirsten (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Tian, Hanqin (Auburn University. School of Forestry)
Yamagata, Yoshiki (Kokuritsu Kankyō Kenkyūjo)

Date: 2017
Abstract: In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1. 5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1. 5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2. 6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6. 0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al. , 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2. 6 compared to RCP6. 0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/H2020/689150
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/H2020/642147
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/H2020/642018
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/H2020/641816
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/FP7/610028
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/FP7/603864
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/FP7/603396
Note: Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552
Rights: Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. Creative Commons
Language: Anglès.
Document: article ; recerca ; publishedVersion
Published in: Geoscientific model development, Vol. 10 (2017) , p. 4321-4345, ISSN 1991-959X

DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017


25 p, 3.8 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (scientific output) > Experimental sciences > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals) > Imbalance-P
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (scientific output) > Experimental sciences > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (scientific output) > Experimental sciences > Integrated Earth System Dynamics Laboratory (IESD)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles

 Record created 2018-03-22, last modified 2018-10-20



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