| Date: |
2016 |
| Abstract: |
Standard models predict that episodes of high unemployment are followed by recoveries. This paper shows, by contrast, that a large shock may set the economy on a path towards very high unemployment, with no recovery in sight. First, I estimate a reduced-form model of flows in the U. S. labor market, allowing for the possibility of multiple steady states. Next, I estimate a non-linear search and matching model, in which multiplicity of steady states may arise due to skill losses upon unemployment, following Pissarides (1992). In both cases, estimates imply a stable steady state with around 5 percent unemployment and an unstable one with around 10 percent unemployment. The search and matching model can explain observed job finding rates remarkably well, due to its strong endogenous persistence mechanism. |
| Abstract: |
The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396. |
| Grants: |
European Commission 649396
|
| Rights: |
Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.  |
| Language: |
Anglès |
| Series: |
Barcelona Graduate School of Economics. ADEMU working paper series |
| Series: |
Ademu Working Papers Series ; 10 |
| Document: |
Working paper |
| Subject: |
Unemployment ;
Multiple steady states ;
Non-linear estimation |
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