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Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere
Liu, Qiang (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Piao, Shilong (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Fu, Yongshuo H. (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Gao, Mengdi (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals)
Janssens, Ivan A. (University of Antwerp. Department of Biology)

Fecha: 2019
Resumen: Climatic warming has advanced spring phenology across the Northern Hemisphere, but the spatial variability in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology is substantial. Whether spring phenology will continue to advance uniformly at latitudes has not yet been investigated. We used Bayesian model averaging and four spring phenology models, and demonstrated that the start of vegetation growing season across the Northern Hemisphere will become substantially more synchronous (up to 11. 3%) under future climatic warming conditions. Larger start of growing season advances are expected at higher than lower latitudes (3. 7-10. 9 days earlier) due to both larger rate in spring warming at higher latitudes and larger decreases in the temperature sensitivity of start of growing season at low latitudes. The consequent impacts on the northern ecosystems due to this increased synchrony may be considerable and thus worth investigating.
Derechos: Tots els drets reservats
Lengua: Anglès
Documento: article ; recerca ; publishedVersion
Materia: Spring phenology synchrony ; Spring phenology model ; Temperature sensitivity ; Climatic warming ; Bayesian model averaging
Publicado en: Geophysical research letters, Vol. 46, issue 3 (Feb. 2019) , p. 1641-1650, ISSN 0094-8276

DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081370

10 p, 3.6 MB

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Documentos de investigación > Documentos de los grupos de investigación de la UAB > Centros y grupos de investigación (producción científica) > Ciencias > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
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 Registro creado el 2019-03-25, última modificación el 2020-08-08

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