Climatic warming increases spatial synchrony in spring vegetation phenology across the Northern Hemisphere

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(Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Piao, Shilong

(Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Fu, Yongshuo H..

(Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Gao, Mengdi

(Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Peñuelas, Josep

(Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Janssens, Ivan

(University of Antwerp. Department of Biology)

Data:	2019
Resum:	Climatic warming has advanced spring phenology across the Northern Hemisphere, but the spatial variability in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology is substantial. Whether spring phenology will continue to advance uniformly at latitudes has not yet been investigated. We used Bayesian model averaging and four spring phenology models, and demonstrated that the start of vegetation growing season across the Northern Hemisphere will become substantially more synchronous (up to 11. 3%) under future climatic warming conditions. Larger start of growing season advances are expected at higher than lower latitudes (3. 7-10. 9 days earlier) due to both larger rate in spring warming at higher latitudes and larger decreases in the temperature sensitivity of start of growing season at low latitudes. The consequent impacts on the northern ecosystems due to this increased synchrony may be considerable and thus worth investigating.
Drets:	Tots els drets reservats.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Spring phenology synchrony ; Spring phenology model ; Temperature sensitivity ; Climatic warming ; Bayesian model averaging
Publicat a:	Geophysical research letters, Vol. 46, issue 3 (Feb. 2019) , p. 1641-1650, ISSN 0094-8276

10 p, 3.6 MB

Registre creat el 2019-03-25, darrera modificació el 2024-09-10