Evolution of opinions in the growth-vs-environment debate : extended replicator dynamics
van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M. (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Savin, Ivan (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Drews, Stefan (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)

Fecha:	2019
Resumen:	The evolution of opinions in the long-standing debate on growth-versus-environment may affect support for important sustainability policies, in areas such as biodiversity loss, climate change, deforestation and freshwater scarcity. In order to understand this evolution, we develop a model describing the dynamics of four distinct opinions as identified in recent surveys, namely growth-at-all-cost, green growth, agrowth and degrowth. The model is based on modifying standard replicator dynamics to match a multi-group structure. Individuals are influenced by local or global interactions with others, based on adjacent opinion groups and exposure to information about environmental change. Psychological resistance to opinion change is also accounted for. The model is calibrated with recent survey data. Numerical analysis shows which opinions survive under particular conditions. We find, among others, that under local interactions, ultimate outcomes are characterized by lack of consensus, i. e. survival of multiple opinions. In addition, equal impacts of environmental change on opinions do not always translate in joint survival of associated opinions. Under worsening environmental conditions while continuing economic growth, opinions shift from green growth to agrowth and degrowth. Fostering global interactions among individuals, causing them to be influenced by a broad spectrum of opinions, makes consensus more likely. We also consider model dynamics if feedback from opinions to policy to environmental change and back is included. This confirms robustness of the results. It should be noted that the model is not meant to predict but to explore the consequences of combinations of assumptions about social networks, psychological mechanisms, environmental dynamics, and connections between opinion distribution and environmental policy. The study represents the first analysis of opinion dynamics in the growth-vs-environment debate and suggests a number of routes for further investigation.
Ayudas:	European Commission 741087
Nota:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552
Nota:	Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601).
Derechos:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Lengua:	Anglès
Documento:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Materia:	Opinion dynamics ; Economic growth ; Environment ; Sustainability ; Climate change
Publicado en:	Futures, Vol. 109 (May 2019) , p. 84-100, ISSN 1873-6378

DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2019.02.024

Postprint 25 p, 2.0 MB

El registro aparece en las colecciones:
Documentos de investigación > Documentos de los grupos de investigación de la UAB > Centros y grupos de investigación (producción científica) > Ciencias > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) > Environmental and Climate Economics (ECE)
Artículos > Artículos de investigación
Artículos > Artículos publicados