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Expected years ever married
Mogi, Ryohe (Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics)
Canudas-Romo, Vladimir (Australian National University. School of Demography)

Date: 2018
Abstract: BACKGROUND In the second half of the 20th century, remarkable marriage changes were seen: a great proportion of never married population, high average age at first marriage, and large variance in first marriage timing. Although it is theoretically possible to separate these three elements, disentangling them analytically remains a challenge. OBJECTIVE This study's goal is to answer the following questions: Which of the three effects, nonmarriage, delayed marriage, or expansion, has the most impact on nuptiality changes? How does the most influential factor differ by time periods, birth cohorts, and countries? METHODS To quantify nuptiality changes over time, we define the measure 'expected years ever married' (EYEM). We illustrate the use of EYEM, looking at time trends in 15 countries (six countries for cohort analysis) and decompose these trends into three components: scale (the changes in the proportion of never married - nonmarriage), location (the changes in timing of first marriage - delayed marriage), and variance (the changes in the standard deviation of first marriage age - expansion). We used population counts by sex, age, and marital status from national statistical offices and the United Nations database. RESULTS Results show that delayed marriage is the most influential factor on period EYEM's changes, while nonmarriage has recently begun to contribute to the change in North and West Europe and Canada. Period and cohort analysis complement each other. CONCLUSIONS This study introduces a new index of nuptiality and decomposes its change into the contribution of three components: scale, location, and variance. The decomposition steps presented here offer an open possibility for more elaborate parametric marriage models.
Rights: Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. Creative Commons
Language: Anglès.
Document: article ; recerca ; publishedVersion
Subject: Economic crisis in Southern Europe ; European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) ; Family change in Mediterranean countries ; Family structure ; Italy ; Mother's educational level ; Regions ; Sociodemographic composition ; Spain
Published in: Demographic research, Vol. 38 Núm. 1 (2018) , p. 1423-1456, ISSN 1435-9871

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.47


36 p, 980.6 KB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (scientific output) > Social and Legal Sciences > Centre for Demographic Studies (CED)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles

 Record created 2019-10-30, last modified 2019-11-25



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