Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain
Achebak, Hicham (Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics)
Devolder, Daniel (Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics)
Ingole, Vijendra (Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal))
Ballester, Joan (Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal))

Date:	2020
Abstract:	A growing number of epidemiological studies have recently assessed temporal variations in vulnerability and/or mortality attributable to hot and cold temperatures. However, the eventual changes in the seasonal distribution of temperature-attributable mortality remain unexplored. Here, we analyse countrywide daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts from respiratory diseases by sex, age group and province of residence during the period 1980-2016 in Spain. We show the complete reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality, with a significant shift of the maximum monthly incidence from winter to summer, and the minimum monthly incidence from early and late summer to winter. The reversal in the seasonal distribution of the attributable deaths is not driven by the observed warming in both winter and summer temperatures, but rather by the very large decrease in the risk of death due to cold temperatures and the relatively much smaller reduction due to hot temperatures. We conclude that the projected decrease in the number of moderate and extreme cold days due to climate warming will not contribute to a further reduction of cold-attributable respiratory deaths.
Grants:	Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca B00391 [FI-2018] Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca B100180 [FI-2019] Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca B200139 [FI-2020] European Commission 865564 European Commission 727852 Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación RYC2018-025446-I Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación EUR2019-103822/ European Commission 730004 Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación CEX2018-000806-S
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Published in:	Nature communications, Vol. 11 Núm. 2457 (2020) , ISSN 2041-1723

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16273-x
PMID: 32433517

9 p, 883.5 KB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Social and Legal Sciences > Centre for Demographic Studies (CED-CERCA)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles