Topics of the nationwide phone-ins with Vladimir Putin and their role for public support and Russian economy
Savin, Ivan (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Teplyakov, N. (Ural Federal University. Graduate School of Economics and Management)

Data:	2022
Resum:	The addresses of national leaders can affect their public support and spur changes in the country's economy. To date, very few studies exist establishing these relationships, and no research has been done on the addresses from Vladimir Putin. In this paper we fill this knowledge gap by analysing the nationwide phone-ins of Putin, a special annual format where he addresses the public, and using structural topic modelling studying their topics over time. Furthermore, we relate these topics to public approval of the president and the government as well as to some Russian macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and budget expenditures. Based on our data containing 1938 responses and almost 250 thousand words, we identify 16 main topics covering areas from healthcare and education through economics to elections and legislation. We find that the topic of foreign affairs has gained in popularity over time the most (from around 4. 5% at the beginning to more than 10% starting from 2014). Another topic, consistently gaining weight in the president's statements, is related to solving particular problems of the general public (from 8% to 12. 5%) and is significantly correlated with subsequent decrease in the country's unemployment (Pearson's correlation coefficient -0. 502). We also find that when the government's support is decreasing, Putin tends to discuss more socially significant topics (e. g. , inflation, healthcare, Pearson's coef. around -0. 5), while when the support is rising, he speaks more about foreign affairs (Pearson's coef. 0. 773). Our study provides first evidence that Vladimir Putin may adapt the content of his phone-in meetings to gather public support and influence the country's economy.
Nota:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Nota:	Here we consider several macroeconomic indicators taken from the Federal State Statistics Service (2019). First, there is the inflation rate calculated for each month as the sum of the inflation coefficients for the previous 12 months. Second, the unemployment rate is defined as the proportion of the unemployed in the economically active population. Further, the real wage index is calculated by dividing the nominal wage index by the consumer price index of the same period. Finally, budget expenditures are the funds of the federal and consolidated regional budgets directed to financial support of the tasks and functions of the federal and regional governments.
Nota:	Altres ajuts: This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project No. 19-18-00262 "Modelling a balanced technological and socio-economic development of the Russian regions".
Nota:	Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB
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Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Publicat a:	Information Processing and Management, Vol. 59 Núm. 5 (september 2022) , p. 103043, ISSN 0306-4573

DOI: 10.1016/j.ipm.2022.103043

20 p, 4.4 MB

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