Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies
Colom, Pau (Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats)
Ninyerola i Casals, Miquel (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)
Pons, Xavier (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Geografia)
Traveset, Anna (Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats)
Stefanescu, Constantí (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)

Date:	2022
Abstract:	Although climate-driven phenological shifts have been documented for many taxa across the globe, we still lack knowledge of the consequences they have on populations. Here, we used a comprehensive database comprising 553 populations of 51 species of north-western Mediterranean butterflies to investigate the relationship between phenology and population trends in a 26-year period. Phenological trends and sensitivity to climate, along with various species traits, were used to predict abundance trends. Key ecological traits accounted for a general decline of more than half of the species, most of which, surprisingly, did not change their phenology under a climate warming scenario. However, this was related to the regional cooling in a short temporal window that includes late winter and early spring, during which most species concentrate their development. Finally, we demonstrate that phenological sensitivity-but not phenological trends-predicted population trends, and argue that species that best adjust their phenology to inter-annual climate variability are more likely to maintain a synchronization with trophic resources, thereby mitigating possible negative effects of climate change. Our results reflect the importance of assessing not only species' trends over time but also species' abilities to respond to a changing climate based on their sensitivity to temperature.
Grants:	Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2017/SGR-1690 Agencia Estatal de Investigación RTI2018-099397-B-C21 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2020-114324GB-C2
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Global warming ; Insect phenology ; Population trends ; Species' life-history traits ; Host plant specialization ; Long-term trends
Published in:	Proceedings - Royal Society. Biological sciences, Vol. 289, Issue 1973 (April 2022) , art. 20220251, ISSN 1471-2954

DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0251
PMID: 35473386

9 p, 1.0 MB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Grupo de Investigación Métodos y Aplicaciones en Teledetección y Sistemas de Información Geográfica (GRUMETS)
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles