Socio-ecological gap analysis to forecast species range contractions for conservation
Harris, Nyeema C. (Yale University)
Murphy, Asia (University of California)
Green, Aalayna R. (Cornell University)
Gámez, Siria (Yale University)
Mwamidi, Daniel Maghanjo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Nunez-Mir, Gabriela C. (University of Illinois at Chicago)

Data:	2023
Resum:	Geospatial approaches are increasingly vital for conservation with applications of gap analysis informing decision-making and resource allocation. We extend traditional assessments by incorporating both the spatial distribution of threats and resources to build an index of available conservation capacity across a species' range. Using 91 African carnivores, we identified locations within each species' range at risk of contraction due to a deficit of resources available to potentially thwart present threats. Our results raise new concerns for African carnivores, particularly small-bodied species, contrary to current perceptions of their extinction risks. Conservation requires both a needs assessment and prioritization scheme for planning and implementation. Range maps are critical for understanding and conserving biodiversity, but current range maps often omit content, negating important metrics of variation in populations and places. Here, we integrate a myriad of conditions that are spatially explicit across distributions of carnivores to identify gaps in capacity necessary for their conservation. Expanding on traditional gap analyses that focus almost exclusively on quantifying discordance in protected area coverage across a species' range, our work aggregates threat layers (e. g. , drought, human pressures) with resources layers (e. g. , protected areas, cultural diversity) to identify gaps in available conservation capacity (ACC) across ranges for 91 African carnivores. Our model indicated that all species have some portion of their range at risk of contraction, with an average of 15 percentage range loss. We found that the ACC differed based on body size and taxonomy. Results deviated from current perceptions of extinction risks for species with an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat status of Least Concern and yielded insights for species categorized as Data Deficient. Our socio-ecological gap analysis presents a geospatial approach to inform decision-making and resource allocation in conservation. Ultimately, our work advances forecasting dynamics of species' ranges that are increasingly vital in an era of great socio-ecological change to mitigate human-wildlife conflict and promote inclusive carnivore conservation across geographies.
Nota:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Geospatial ; Africa ; Carnivore ; Human pressure ; Protected area
Publicat a:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 120, Num. 7 (February 2023) , art. e2201942119, ISSN 1091-6490

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2201942119
PMID: 36165442

9 p, 10.1 MB

El registre apareix a les col·leccions:
Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)
Articles > Articles de recerca
Articles > Articles publicats