Population distribution over time : modelling local spatial dependence with a CAR process
Epifani, Ilenia (Politecnico di Milano)
Ghiringhelli, Chiara (Università della Svizzera Italiana)
Nicolini, Rosella (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia Aplicada)
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. SGR-Grup de Recerca d'Economia Política i Política Públiques

Date:	2020
Description:	25 pàg.
Abstract:	The effectiveness of local spatial dependence in shaping the population density distribution is investigated. Individual location preferences are modelled by considering the status-related features of a given spatial unit and its neighbours as well as local random spatial dependence. The novelty is framing such a dependence through conditionally autoregressive (CAR) census random effects that are added to a spatially lagged explanatory variable X (SLX) setting. The results not only confirm that controlling for the spatial dimension is relevant but also indicate that local spatial dependence warrants consideration when determining the population distribution of recent decades. In this respect, the framework turns out to be useful for the analysis of microdata in which individual relationships (in a same spatial unit) enforce local spatial dependence.
Grants:	Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad ECO2014-52506-R
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Subject:	Hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model ; Population density distribution ; Spatial conditionally autoregressive (CAR) model ; Spatial interaction
Published in:	Spatial Economic Analysis, Vol. 15 Núm. 2 (2020) , p. 120-144, ISSN 1742-1780

DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2020.1708442

Postprint 45 p, 3.7 MB

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