Overlooked factors in predicting the transition to clean electricity
Martin, Nick (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Madrid, Cristina (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Villalba, Gara (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Enginyeria Química, Biològica i Ambiental)
Talens Peiró, Laura (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Enginyeria Química, Biològica i Ambiental)

Date:	2022
Abstract:	The transition to clean energy will require significant increases in electricity sourced from renewable energy technologies. While wind and solar photovoltaic sources are generally expected to overtake hydropower to dominate the renewable electricity supply market, numerous other technologies vie for a share in this rapidly evolving arena. To date, predicting the emergence of different technologies has relied on large-scale energy models that employ simplified optimisations of economic and emissions reductions outcomes. This is problematic as many additional factors, largely underrepresented in current models, are likely to co-determine technological emergence storylines in the real world. Here, we present a summary of the best available information for five key factors as they apply to the seven most common renewable electricity technology categories. The findings suggest that wind and solar photovoltaic technologies remain the most likely to dominate the market going forward but could face considerable raw material supply risk issues. Other potentially more desirable alternatives exist but face their own geographic and environmental limitations. Ultimately, the study demonstrates the potential and importance of expanding the use of other relevant factors in the forecasting of energy transition pathways and in the field of energy modelling as a whole.
Grants:	European Commission 837089
Note:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Carta ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Renewable energy ; Energy transition ; Decarbonisation ; Technology emergence ; Critical raw materials
Published in:	Environmental Research: infrastructure and sustainability, Vol. 2, Num. 2 (June 2022) , art. 21005, ISSN 2634-4505

DOI: 10.1088/2634-4505/ac70f7

14 p, 2.2 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles