Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios
Margalef Marrasé, Jordi (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Molowny Horas, Roberto (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Jaime, Luciana (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Lloret Maya, Francisco (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)

Títol variant:	Pinus sylvestris resilience after a die-off event
Data:	2023
Resum:	In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i. e. , seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.
Ajuts:	Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte FPU15/04593 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CGL2015-67419-R Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2020-115264RB-I00 Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2017/SGR-1001
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Matèria:	SDG 13 - Climate Action
Publicat a:	Science of the total environment, Vol. 856, Part 2 (January 2023) , art. 159063, ISSN 1879-1026

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063

Post-print 46 p, 2.1 MB

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Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
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