On a new SEIRDE o I o epidemic model eventually initiated from outside with delayed re-susceptibility and vaccination and treatment feedback controls
De la Sen, Manuel (Universidad del País Vasco. Departamento de Electricidad y Electrónica)
Ibeas, Asier (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Telecomunicació i Enginyeria de Sistemes)
Garrido, Aitor J. (Universidad del País Vasco. Departamento de Ingeniería de Control Automático y Sistemas)

Data:	2021
Resum:	This paper studies a new extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious recovered) epidemic model which incorporates the contribution of infective contagions to the resident population from infective exposed (Eo) and infectious (Io) outsiders as well as eventual delayed re-susceptibility by partial loss of immunity. It is referred to as a SEIRDEoIo since the dead individuals caused by the disease are defined as a new subpopulation. The potential contribution of the disease propagation of non-resident external infected travellers is considered as well as a re-susceptibility which increases the susceptible numbers and a parallel loss of immunity caused by a potential delayed re-infection. The model is also studied under eventual vaccination and treatment controls each one of them including two additive terms including proportional feedback of the susceptible and infectious, respectively, as well as control actions being independent of the population numbers. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are characterized, as well as their dependence on the control gains, and their stability properties are also studied. It is found that they are unique and only one of the two is a global attractor depending on the model parameter values. Typically, the value of the basic reproduction number is crucial to characterize the stability or, alternatively, that of the coefficient transmission rate provided that the remaining parameters are prefixed. The controls are also useful to increase the admissible minimum threshold of the infection force compatible with the stability of the disease-free equilibrium point. Simulation results are given, some of them related to parameterizations of usefulness related to the recent COVID-19, while others to a varicella case study.
Ajuts:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación RTI2018-094336-B-I00 Instituto de Salud Carlos III COV20/01213
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Epidemic model ; SEIR epidemic model ; SEIRDEoIo epidemic model ; Non-resident infectious ; Equilibrium points ; COVID-19 ; SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
Publicat a:	Physica Scripta, Vol. 96, Issue 9 (September 2021) , art. 095002, ISSN 1402-4896

DOI: 10.1088/1402-4896/ac018c

36 p, 2.2 MB

El registre apareix a les col·leccions:
Articles > Articles de recerca
Articles > Articles publicats