Diagnosing destabilisation risk in global land carbon sinks
Fernández-Martínez, Marcos (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Chevallier, Frédéric (Université Paris-Saclay. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Ciais, Philippe (Université Paris-Saclay. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Obersteiner, Michael (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Àustria). Ecosystem Services and Management)
Rödenbeck, Christian (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry. Department of Biogeochmical Systems)
Sardans i Galobart, Jordi (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Vicca, Sara (University of Antwerp. Department of Biology)
Yang, Hui (Université Paris-Saclay. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Sitch, Stephen (University of Exeter. College of Life and Environmental Sciences)
Friedlingstein, Pierre (University of Exeter. College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences)
Arora, Vivek K. (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis)
Goll, Daniel (Université Paris-Saclay. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Jain, Atul (University of Illinois. Department of Atmospheric Sciences)
Lombardozzi, Danica (National Center for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, Estats Units). Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory)
McGuire, Patrick C. (University of Reading. Department of Meteorology)
Janssens, Ivan (University of Antwerp. Department of Biology)

Data:	2023
Resum:	Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades1. Whether its temporal variability and autocorrelation have changed during this period, however, remains elusive, even though an increase in both could indicate an increased potential for a destabilized carbon sink2,3. Here, we investigate the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018 using two atmospheric-inversion models, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from nine monitoring stations distributed across the Pacific Ocean and dynamic global vegetation models. We find that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally whereas temporal autocorrelation decreased. We observe a separation of regions characterized by increasingly variable NBP, associated with warm regions and increasingly variable temperatures, lower and weaker positive trends in NBP and regions where NBP became stronger and less variable. Plant species richness presented a concave-down parabolic spatial relationship with NBP and its variability at the global scale whereas nitrogen deposition generally increased NBP. Increasing temperature and its increasing variability appear as the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP. Our results show increasing variability of NBP regionally that can be mostly attributed to climate change and that may point to destabilization of the coupled carbon-climate system.
Ajuts:	European Commission 610028 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2019-110521GB-I00 Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2017/SGR-1005 "la Caixa" Foundation 100010434/LCF/BQ/PI21/11830010
Drets:	Tots els drets reservats.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Matèria:	Carbon cycle ; Macroecology
Publicat a:	Nature, Vol. 615, issue 7954 (March 2023) , p. 848-853, ISSN 1476-4687

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-05725-1

Article. Postprint 27 p, 598.1 KB

Supplementary material 34 p, 3.1 MB

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