Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming
Zhao, Chuang (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Piao, Shilong (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Wang, Xuhui (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Huang, Yao (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change)
Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L'Environnement)
Elliott, Joshua (University of Chicago Computation Institute)
Huang, Mengtian (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Janssens, Ivan (Universiteit Antwerpen. Departement Biologie)
Li, Tao (International Rice Research Institute)
Lian, Xu (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Liu, Yongwen (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Müller, Christoph (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Peng, Shushi (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Wang, Tao (Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research)
Zhenzhong, Zeng (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)

Additional title:	The impact of future warming on global rice yield
Date:	2017
Abstract:	Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population1-3. Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produced a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5. 2±1. 4% K-1. Local crop models gave a similar sensitivity (-6. 3±0. 4% K-1), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (0. 8±0. 3% K-1 and -2. 4±3. 7% 38 K-1, respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the changes in future yield in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1. 3% K-1 to -9. 3% K-1). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8. 3±1. 4% K-1) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 35%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4. 2 to -6. 4% K-1)4. Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.
Grants:	European Commission 610028
Note:	Imbalance P
Rights:	Tots els drets reservats.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Published in:	Nature plants, Vol. 3 (Des. 2016) , art. 16202, ISSN 2055-0278

DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2016.202

Post-print 27 p, 832.5 KB

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