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Changes in the natural dynamics of Nothofagus dombeyi forests : population modeling with increasing drought frequencies
Molowny-Horas, Roberto (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals)
Suárez, Maria Laura (Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas)
Lloret Maya, Francisco (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)

Data: 2017
Resum: Drought-induced episodes of tree mortality can determine forest dynamics and structure, particularly in forests dominated by single species. Short- and mid-term climate projections indicate that strong changes in annual precipitation may strike more often in northern Patagonia. Data for recruitment, growth, and survival of Nothofagus dombeyi tree individuals were collected at several sites across the Nahuel Huapi National Park in Argentina. We combined mathematically all these different demographic stages into an Integral Projection Model to simulate 100-yr projections of simulated stand structure under different frequencies of extreme drought episodes. We projected total basal area and the number of individuals for three different initial stand types (i. e. , young, medium, and old) and for varying drought frequencies (i. e. , from 1 to 5 drought events every 100 years). Recruitment into the dbh ≥ 10 cm size class under normal conditions (i. e. , without drought) was higher than under episodic drought conditions. In addition, survival under normal conditions was higher than under drought conditions, especially for small trees. Differences in growth were also important, with trees growing more vigorously under normal than under drought conditions. Our simulations predicted that N. dombeyi populations would experience a reduction in tree density in the mid-term if, as predicted by the IPCC projections, the frequency of future drought events increased. The simulations also showed that in those cases, young stands should suffer the most. Drought-mediated changes may induce a decline in the development of N. dombeyi forests in the mid- and long term by a drastic reduction in tree density.
Nota: Número d'acord de subvenció MINECO/CGL2015-67419-R
Nota: Número d'acord de subvenció MINECO/GL2012-32965
Drets: Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. Creative Commons
Llengua: Anglès.
Document: article ; recerca ; publishedVersion
Matèria: Austral forests ; Climate change ; Drought episodes ; Forest dieback ; Nothofagus dombeyi ; Population dynamics modeling
Publicat a: Ecosphere, Vol. 8, issue 3 (March 2017) , e01708, ISSN 2150-8925

DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1708


Article
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El registre apareix a les col·leccions:
Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Articles > Articles de recerca
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 Registre creat el 2017-09-06, darrera modificació el 2019-01-30



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