Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
Zhao, Chuang (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Liu, Bing (Nanjing nong ye da xue. National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture)
Piao, Shilong (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research)
Wang, Xuhui (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Lobelli, David B. (Stanford University. Department of Earth System Science Center on Food Security and the Environment)
Huang, Yao (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change)
Huanga, Mengtian (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Yao, Yitong (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Bassuk, Simona (Università degli Studi di Sassari. Nucleo Ricerca Desertificazione)
Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Durand, Jean-Louis (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (França))
Elliott, Joshua (University of Chicago Computation Institute)
Ewert, Frank (Universität Bonn. Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz)
Janssens, Ivan (University of Antwerp (Bèlgica))
Li, Tao (International Rice Research Institute)
Lint, Erda (Zhongguo nong ye ke xue yuan. Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute)
Liu, Qiang (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Martre, Pierre (Institut national de la recherche agronomique (France). Laboratoire d'Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress Environnementaux)
Müller, Christoph (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)
Peng, Shushi (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Ruaney, Alex C. (Columbia University. Center for Climate Systems Research)
Wallachz, Daniel (Institut national de la recherche agronomique (France). UMR AGIR)
Wang, Tao (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research)
Wua, Donghai (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Liu, Zhuo (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Zhu, Yan (Nanjing nong ye da xue. National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture)
Zhua, Zaichun (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Assengf, Senthold (University of Florida. Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department)

Date:	2017
Abstract:	Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6. 0%, rice by 3. 2%, maize by 7. 4%, and soybean by 3. 1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
Grants:	European Commission 610028
Note:	Imbalance-P paper contact with: josep peñuelas: j.penuelas@uab.cat
Rights:	Tots els drets reservats.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Subject:	Climate change impact ; Global food security ; Major food crops ; Temperature increase ; Yield
Published in:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 114, no. 35 (Aug. 2017) , p. 9326-9331, ISSN 1091-6490

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114
PMID: 28811375

Post-print 28 p, 1.0 MB

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