Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change
Liu, Yujie (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Chen, Jie (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Pan, Tao (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Liu, Yanhua (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Zhang, Yuhu (Capital Normal University)
Ge, Quansheng (Chinese Academy of Sciences. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation)
Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)

Date:	2020
Abstract:	Precipitation extremes are among the most serious consequences of climate change around the world. The observed and projected frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in some regions will greatly influence the social economy. The frequency of extreme precipitation and the population and economic exposure were quantified for a base period (1986-2005) and future periods (2016-2035 and 2046-2065) based on bias corrected projections of daily precipitation from five global climatic models forced with three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP) in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The RCP8. 5-SSP3 scenario produces the highest global population exposure for 2046-2065, with nearly 30% of the global population (2. 97 × 109 persons) exposed to precipitation extremes.
Grants:	European Commission 610028
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Socioeconomic risk ; Precipitation extremes ; Climate change ; RCP scenarios ; SSP scenarios
Published in:	Earth's future, Vol. 8, Issue 9 (September 2020) , art. e2019EF001331, ISSN 2328-4277

DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001331
PMID: 32999892

15 p, 8.2 MB

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