Stochastic simulation of successive saves of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona
Bosman, Martine
Esteve, Albert (Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics)
López Gay, Antonio (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Geografia)
Manera, Marc (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Física)
Gabbanelli, Luciano
Jordan, Javier
Martínez Rodríguez, Manel (Institut de Física d'Altes Energies)
Masjuan Queralt, Pere (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Física)
Mir, Ll. M.
Paradells, J.
Pignatelli, A.
Riu, I.
Vitagliano, V.
López Gay, Antonio (Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics)

Date:	2023
Abstract:	Analytic compartmental models are currently used in mathematical epidemiology to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and explore the impact of mitigation strategies. In general, such models treat the population as a single entity, losing the social, cultural and economical specificities. We present a network model that uses socio-demographic datasets with the highest available granularity to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona. The model is flexible enough to incorporate the effect of containment policies, such as lockdowns or the use of protective masks, and can be easily adapted to future epidemics. We follow a stochastic approach that combines a compartmental model with detailed individual microdata from the population census, including social determinants and age-dependent strata, and time-dependent mobility information. We show that our model reproduces the dynamical features of the disease across two waves and demonstrates its capability to become a powerful tool for simulating epidemic events.
Grants:	Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2020PANDE0180 European Commission 758145 European Commission 01370 European Commission 6655919 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2020-112965GB-I00
Note:	Altres ajuts: CERCA Programme/Generalitat de Catalunya ; Talent Research Program (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	COVID-19 modelling ; Parameter estimation ; Socio-demographic data ; Intervention
Published in:	Infectious Disease Modelling, Vol. 8 (2023) , p. 145-158, ISSN 2468-0427

DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.12.005
PMID: 36589597

15 p, 1.3 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Social and Legal Sciences > Centre for Demographic Studies (CED-CERCA)
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Institut de Física d’Altes Energies (IFAE)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles