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| Pàgina inicial > Articles > Articles publicats > Development and validation of a nomogram to predict kidney survival at baseline in patients with C3 glomerulopathy |
(Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Hospital 12 de Octubre (i+12)) (Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre (Madrid)) (Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau) (Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron) (Hospital Clínic i Provincial de Barcelona) (Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron) (Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío (Sevilla, Andalusia)) (Hospital Universitario Fundación Jiménez Díaz) (Hospital Universitari Son Espases (Palma de Mallorca, Balears)) (Hospital Universitario La Paz (Madrid)) (Hospital Universitario Puerta de Hierro Majadahonda (Madrid)) (Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau) (Hospital Universitario Clínico San Carlos (Madrid))| Data: | 2022 |
| Resum: | Background: C3 glomerulopathy is a rare and heterogeneous complement-driven disease. It is often challenging to accurately predict in clinical practice the individual kidney prognosis at baseline. We herein sought to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict long-Term kidney survival. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, multicenter observational cohort study in 35 nephrology departments belonging to the Spanish Group for the Study of Glomerular Diseases. The dataset was randomly divided into a training group (n = 87) and a validation group (n = 28). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen the main predictors of kidney outcome and to build the nomogram. The accuracy of the nomogram was assessed by discrimination and risk calibration in the training and validation sets. Results: The study group comprised 115 patients, of whom 46 (40%) reached kidney failure in a median follow-up of 49 months (range 24-112). No significant differences were observed in baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), proteinuria or total chronicity score of kidney biopsies, between patients in the training versus those in the validation set. The selected variables by LASSO were eGFR, proteinuria and total chronicity score. Based on a Cox model, a nomogram was developed for the prediction of kidney survival at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years from diagnosis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0. 860 (95% confidence interval 0. 834-0. 887) and calibration plots showed optimal agreement between predicted and observed outcomes. Conclusions: We constructed and validated a practical nomogram with good discrimination and calibration to predict the risk of kidney failure in C3 glomerulopathy patients at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years. |
| Ajuts: | Instituto de Salud Carlos III PI16/01685 Instituto de Salud Carlos III PI19/1624 Instituto de Salud Carlos III RD12/0021/0029 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad |
| Nota: | Altres ajuts: Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER); Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid (S2017/BMD-3673). |
| Drets: | Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.  |
| Llengua: | Anglès |
| Document: | Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada |
| Matèria: | C3 glomerulopathy ; Calibration ; Discrimination ; Kidney failure ; Nomogram |
| Publicat a: | Clinical Kidney Journal, Vol. 15 Núm. 9 (january 2022) , p. 1737-1746, ISSN 2048-8513 |
