Ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests will be compromised above 2℃ warming
Morán Ordóñez, Alejandra (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Ramsauer, Julia (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Coll, Lluís (Universitat de Lleida. Departament de Ciència i Enginyeria Forestal i Agrícola)
Brotons, Lluís (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Ameztegui, Aitor (Universitat de Lleida. Departament de Ciència i Enginyeria Forestal i Agrícola)

Data:	2021
Resum:	Forests provide a wide range of provisioning, regulating and cultural services of greatvalue to societies across the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we reviewed the sci -entific literature of the last 30 years to quantify the magnitude of projected changesin ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests under IPCC climate changescenarios. We classified the scenarios according to the temperature threshold of 2℃set by the Paris Agreement (below or above). The review of 78 studies shows thatclimate change will lead to a general reduction in the provision of regulating services(e. g. carbon storage, regulation of freshwater quantity and quality) and a general in-crease in the number of fires, burnt areas and generally, an increase in climate-relatedforest hazards (median + 62% by 2100). Studies using scenarios above the 2℃ thresh-old projected significantly more negative changes in regulating services than stud-ies using scenarios below this threshold. Main projected trend changes on materialservices (e. g. wood products), were less clear and depended on (i) whether or notthe studies considered the interaction between the rise in temperatures and otherdrivers (e. g. forest management, CO2 fertilization) and (ii) differences in productivityresponses across the tree species evaluated. Overall, the reviewed studies projectedsignificant reductions in range extent and habitat suitability for the most drought-sensitive forest species (e. g. -88% Fagus sylvatica), while the amount of habitatavailable for more drought-tolerant species will remain stable or increase; however,the magnitude of projected change for these more xeric species was limited whenhigh-end extreme climatic scenarios were considered (above Paris Agreement). Ourreview highlights the benefits that climate change mitigation (to keep global meantemperature increase <2℃) can bring in terms of service provision and conservationof Mediterranean forests.
Ajuts:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación CGL2017-89999-C2-2-R Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación IJCI-2016-30349 Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación IJCI-2016-30049
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Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Matèria:	Climate change ; Ecological modelling ; Ecosystem services ; Fires ; Forecasting ; Hazards ; Mediterranean forests ; Scenarios
Publicat a:	Global change biology, Vol. 27, issue 18 (September 2021) , p. 4210-4222, ISSN 1365-2486

DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15745

Article. Postprint 29 p, 970.8 KB

Supplementary information 16 p, 854.3 KB

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