Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia
San-José, Adrià (Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal))
Mayor Aparicio, Pedro Ginés (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Sanitat i d'Anatomia Animals)
Carvalho, Bruno (Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal))
El Bizri, Hani R. (University of Salford)
Pinassi Antunes, André (National Institute of Amazonian Research)
Antunez, M. (Instituto del Bien Común)
Aquino, Rolando (National University of San Marcos)
Bodmer, Richard E. (Comunidad de Manejo de Fauna Silvestre en la Amazonía y en Latinoamérica)
Boubli, Jean (University of Salford)
Carvalho, Elildo A.R. (Rede de Pesquisa em Conservação, Uso e Manejo da Fauna da Amazônica)
Campos-Silva, João V. (Instituto Juruá)
Constantino, Pedro A.L. (United States Forest Service)
de Paula, Milton José (Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Pará)
Desbiez, Arnauld L.J. (Wild Animal Conservation Institute)
Fang, Tula (Comunidad de Manejo de Fauna Silvestre en la Amazonía y en Latinoamérica)
Gomez-Puerta, Luis A. (Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos (Lima, Perú))
Knoop, Simon B. (Comunidad de Manejo de Fauna Silvestre en la Amazonía y en Latinoamérica)
Longin, Guillaume (Guiana Amazonian Park)
Morcatty, Thais Q. (Oxford Brookes University)
Maranhão, Louise (Instituto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Mamirauá)
Massocato, Gabriel Favero (Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Pará)
Munari, Daniel P. (Rede de Pesquisa em Conservação, Uso e Manejo da Fauna da Amazônica)
Nunes, André Valle (Rede de Pesquisa em Conservação, Uso e Manejo da Fauna da Amazônica)
Puertas, Pablo (Comunidad de Manejo de Fauna Silvestre en la Amazonía y en Latinoamérica)
Oliveira, Marcela A. (Comunidad de Manejo de Fauna Silvestre en la Amazonía y en Latinoamérica)
Pezzuti, Juarez C.B. (Rede de Pesquisa em Conservação, Uso e Manejo da Fauna da Amazônica)
Richard-Hansen, Cécile (UMR EcoFoG)
Santos, Geovanna (Centro Universitário São Lucas)
Valsecchi, João (Rede de Pesquisa em Conservação, Uso e Manejo da Fauna da Amazônica)
von Mühlen, Eduardo M. (Instituto Juruá)
Bosmediano, John (Universidad Científica de Perú)
Rodó, Xavier (Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal))
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Sanitat i d'Anatomia Animals

Data:	2023
Descripció:	10 pàg.
Resum:	Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode Echinococcus vogeli, is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca Cuniculus paca) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of E. vogeli. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Climate change ; Enso ; Modeling ; Zoonotic diseases ; Zoonotic spillover ; SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being ; SDG 13 - Climate Action
Publicat a:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 120 Núm. 33 (2023) , p. e2302661120, ISSN 1091-6490

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2302661120
PMID: 37549288

10 p, 4.7 MB

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