The effect of educational expansion and family change on the sustainability of public and private transfers
Spielauer, Martin (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))
Horvath, Thomas (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))
Fink, Marian (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))
Abío, Gemma (Universitat de Barcelona)
Souto Nieves, Guadalupe (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia Aplicada)
Patxot, Concepció (Universitat de Barcelona)
Istenič, Tanja (Univerza V Ljubljani)

Data:	2023
Descripció:	17 pàg.
Resum:	This paper examines the impact of aging and related socio-economic trends (educational expansion and changes in family structure) on the sustainability of public and private transfers. For this purpose, recently available disaggregated National Transfer Accounts (NTA) are combined with dynamic microsimulation techniques to build the first dynamic microsimulation model that incorporates NTA accounting (microWELT) and is thus able to capture how agents rely on public and private transfers over their lifecycle. The model simulates the major lifetime transitions at the individual level, including education, emancipation, fertility, partnership formation and dissolution, and death. The analysis was conducted for four European countries, representative of four welfare models: Austria, Finland, Spain, and the UK. We compare sustainability indicators for the economy, the public sector, and families in the NTA tradition with enriched indicators that capture additional composition effects. When these additional composition effects are ignored, as in previous literature, we find that the Economic Support Ratio decreases more than the pure Demographic Support Ratio. In striking contrast, we show that composition effects due to educational expansion that interact with changes in family structures lead to the opposite result, alleviating the effects of demographic aging. Unlike public transfers, private transfers are only slightly affected by aging, as they are near zero for the elderly.
Ajuts:	European Commission. Horizon 2020 PCIN-2016-151 Agencia Estatal de Investigación RTI2018-095799-B-I00 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2020-114040RB-I00
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Demographic transition ; Education ; Family ; Microsimulation ; National transfer accounts ; Welfare
Publicat a:	Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Vol. 25 (2023) , p. 100455, ISSN 2212-828X

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100455

17 p, 2.7 MB

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