Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: a global multi-city analysis
Feurer, Denise (University of Padua)
Riffe, Tim (Universidad del País Vasco)
Kniffka, Maxi Stella (Universität Rostock)
Acosta, Enrique (Universität Rostock)
Armstrong, Ben (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)
Mistry, Malcolm (University of Venice)
Lowek, Rachel (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)
Royé, Dominic (Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid)
Hashizume, Masahiro (Nagasaki University)
Madaniyazi, Lina (Nagasaki University)
Ng, Chris Fook Sheng (The University of Tokyo)
Tobías, Aurelio (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (Espanya))
Íñiguez, Carmen (Universitat de València)
Vicedo-Cabrerat, Ana Maria (University of Bern)
Ragettli, Martina S. (University of Basel)
Lavigne, Eric (University of Ottawa)
Matus Correa, Patricia (Universidad de los Andes)
Valdés Ortega, Nicolás (Universidad de los Andes)
Kyselý, Jan (University of Life Sciences)
Urban, Aleš (University of Life Sciences)
Orru, Hans (University of Tartu)
Indermitte, Ene (University of Tartu)
Maasikmets, Marek (Estonian Environmental Research Centre)
Dallavalle, Marco (German Research Center for Environmental Health)
Schneider, Alexandra (German Research Center for Environmental Health)
Honda, Yasushi (University of Tsukuba)
Alahmad, Barrak (Harvard University)
Zanobetti, Antonella (Harvard University)
Schwartz, Joel (Harvard University)
Carrasco, Gabriel (Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia)
Holobâca, Iulian Horia (Babes-Bolyai University)
Kim, Ho (Seoul National University)
Lee, Whanhee (Pusan National University)
Bell, Michelle L. (Yale University)
Scovronick, Noah (Emory University)
Acquaotta, Fiorella (University of Torino)
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline (Universidade de São Paulo)
Hurtado Diaz, Magali (Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health)
Félix Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth (Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health)
Michelozzi, Paola (Lazio Regional Health Service)
Stafoggia, Massimo (Lazio Regional Health Service)
de'Donato, Francesca (Lazio Regional Health Service)
Rao, Shilpa (Norwegian Institute of Public Health)
Di Ruscio, Francesco (Norwegian Institute of Public Health)
Seposo, Xerxes (Hokkaido University)
Guo, Yuming (Monash University)
Tong, Shilu (Queensland University of Technology)
Masselot, Pierre (University of Venice)
Gasparrini, Antonio (University of Venice)
Sera, Francesco (Università degli Studi di Firenze)
Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics

Date:	2024
Abstract:	Objectives: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. Methods: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 - 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. Results: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1. 22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. Conclusions: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission.
Grants:	European Commission 101057554
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Published in:	Environmental Epidemiology, Vol. 8 Núm. 6 (December 2024) , ISSN 2474-7882

DOI: 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000338
PMID: 39534387

12 p, 1.0 MB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Social and Legal Sciences > Centre for Demographic Studies (CED-CERCA)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles