Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation
Zhang, Xinyi (Tianjin University)
Wang, Xiaoyue (University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Zohner, Constantin (ETH Zürich)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Li, Yang (University of Arizona)
Wu, Xiuchen (Beijing Normal University)
Zhang, Yao (Peking University)
Liu, Huiying (East China Normal University)
Shen, Pengju (University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Jia, Xiaoxu (University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Liu, Wenbin (University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Tian, Dashuan (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Pradhan, Prajal (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Fandohan, Adandé Belarmain (Université Nationale d'Agriculture)
Peng, Dailiang (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Wu, Chaoyang (University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Data:	2025
Resum:	Precipitation is an important factor influencing the date of foliar senescence, which in turn affects carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the temporal patterns of precipitation frequency and its impact on foliar senescence date remain largely unknown. Using both long-term carbon flux data and satellite observations across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that, after excluding impacts from of temperature, radiation and total precipitation by partial correlation analysis, declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier foliar senescence date from 1982 to 2022. A decrease in precipitation frequency intensifies drought stress by reducing root-zone soil moisture and increasing atmospheric dryness, and limit the photosynthesis necessary for sustained growth. The enhanced drought acclimation, showing a more rapid response to drought, also explains the positive relationship between precipitation frequency and foliar senescence date. Finally, we find 30 current state-of-art Earth system models largely fail to capture the sensitivity of DFS to changes in precipitation frequency and incorrectly predict the direction of correlations for approximately half of the northern global lands, in both historical simulations and future predictions. Our results therefore highlight the critical need to include precipitation frequency, rather than just total precipitation, into models to accurately forecast plant phenology under future climate change. Precipitation impacts leaf senescence. Here, the authors use carbon flux and satellite data to demonstrate that reduced precipitation frequency is associated with a faster drought response in trees and show that Earth system models don't capture the impact of reduced precipitation.
Ajuts:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación TED2021-132627B-I00 Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2021/SGR-1333
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Climate-change impacts ; Climate and Earth system modelling ; Phenology ; Ecological modelling
Publicat a:	Nature communications, Vol. 16 (January 2025) , art. 910, ISSN 2041-1723

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56159-4
PMID: 39837832

9 p, 2.1 MB

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