Forecast skill assessment of an operational continental heat-cold-health forecasting system : New avenues for health early warning systems
Quijal-Zamorano, M. (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Petrova, D. (ISGlobal)
Martínez-Solanas, È. (Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya)
Herrmann, F.R. (University of Geneva)
Rodó, X. (Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats)
Robine, J.M. (École Pratique des Hautes Études)
Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc 1978- (Institut de Recerca Sant Pau)
Achebak, Hicham (Inserm. France Cohortes)
Ballester, Joan (Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal))
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Date:	2024
Abstract:	More than 110,000 Europeans died as a result of the record-breaking temperatures of 2022 and 2023. A new generation of impact-based early warning systems, using epidemiological models to transform weather forecasts into health forecasts for targeted population subgroups, is an essential adaptation strategy to increase resilience against climate change. Here, we assessed the skill of an operational continental heat-cold-health forecasting system. We used state-of-the-art temperature-lag-mortality epidemiological models to transform bias-corrected ensemble weather forecasts into daily temperature-related mortality forecasts. We found that temperature forecasts can be used to issue skillful forecasts of temperature-related mortality. However, the forecast skill varied by season and location, and it was different for temperature and temperature-related mortality due to the use of epidemiological models. Overall, our study demonstrates and quantifies the forecast skill horizon of heat-cold-health forecasting systems, which is a necessary step toward generating trust among public health authorities and end users.
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Adaptation strategies ; Breakings ; Daily temperatures ; Early Warning System ; Ensemble weather forecasts ; Epidemiological modeling ; Forecasting system ; Skill assessment ; State of the art ; Temperature lag ; Climate Change ; Cold Temperature ; Forecasting ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Public Health ; Seasons ; Weather
Published in:	Science advances, Vol. 10 Núm. 46 (15 2024) , p. eado5286, ISSN 2375-2548

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado5286
PMID: 39536112

9 p, 2.5 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Health sciences and biosciences > Institut de Recerca Sant Pau
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles