| Resum: |
In 2008, the worst financial and economic crisis in recent history, which was originated in the United States, put the world's economic system in danger. Ten years after the catastrophe, many studies have been conducted in order to understand what happened. The purpose of this project is to evaluate the different causes of the crisis in the U. S. , to identify which were the solutions proposed at the time mainly by American institutions, and to determine whether the changes implemented during the crisis can prevent a similar meltdown in the recent future. After the revision of different academic articles, important books on the crisis written by financial experts, Governmental Reports and Governmental data sources, and articles in relevant and trustworthy newspapers, the focus is placed on the role of Mortgages and the subsequent Securitization of these mortgages carried out in financial markets as one major cause of the crisis. This approach allowed me to identify a special causal relationship between the type of the mortgages given to borrowers before the crisis, the default rates on these mortgages and, therefore, the transmission of these default rates to the financial markets through the new financial instruments created before the crisis that had mortgages as underlying assets. Finally, the last part of the project is an in-depth analysis of the measures taken to prevent a similar crisis again, which leads to my conclusions supporting the possibility of a crisis of similar dimensions to happen again although, in all probability, for different reasons, at least in terms of mortgage lending and securitization. The conclusion after the analysis is that the U. S. Government's post-crisis actions will successfully prevent a crisis from happening due to the same reasons, even if Trump's administration is pushing, again, for deregulation. Also, what is important is to consider the mental change that the crisis entailed for the population, which is now, theoretically, less likely to behave irrationally when it comes to borrowing. In addition, the conclusions also emphasize the importance of the U. S. electoral calendar, which is likely to constrain Republican's deregulatory actions before the elections in 2020. Lastly, the study doesn't disremember the potential severity of the next financial crisis, which is estimated for the year 2020, and could have devastating effects in the economy as Governments are very indebted and would not be able to develop similar solutions as the ones carried out in 2008. |
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