Temporal dynamics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula, 2012-2017
Alkhamis, M. A. (University of Minnesota. Department of Veterinary Population Medicine (USA))
Fernández-Fontelo, Amanda (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques)
Vanderwaal, K. (University of Minnesota. Department of Veterinary Population Medicine (USA))
Abuhadida, S. (Ministry of Health. Assistant Undersecretary Office of Quality and Development. Health Planning and Follow-up Department (Kuwait))
Puig i Casado, Pere (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques)
Alba-Casals, Ana (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries. Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal)

Date:	2019
Abstract:	Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a notable disease and poses a significant threat to global public health. The Arabian Peninsula is considered a major global epicentre for the disease and the virus has crossed regional and continental boundaries since 2012. In this study, we focused on exploring the temporal dynamics of MERS-CoV in human populations in the Arabian Peninsula between 2012 and 2017, using publicly available data on case counts and combining two analytical methods. Disease progression was assessed by quantifying the time-dependent reproductive number (TD-Rs), while case series temporal pattern was modelled using the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). We accounted for geographical variability between three major affected regions in Saudi Arabia including Eastern Province, Riyadh and Makkah. In Saudi Arabia, the epidemic size was large with TD-Rs >1, indicating significant spread until 2017. In both Makkah and Riyadh regions, the epidemic progression reached its peak in April 2014 (TD-Rs > 7), during the highest incidence period of MERS-CoV cases. In Eastern Province, one unique super-spreading event (TD-R > 10) was identified in May 2013, which comprised of the most notable cases of human-to-human transmission. Best-fitting ARIMA model inferred statistically significant biannual seasonality in Riyadh region, a region characterised by heavy seasonal camel-related activities. However, no statistical evidence of seasonality was identified in Eastern Province and Makkah. Instead, both areas were marked by an endemic pattern of cases with sporadic outbreaks. Our study suggested new insights into the epidemiology of the virus, including inferences about epidemic progression and evidence for seasonality. Despite the inherent limitations of the available data, our conclusions provide further guidance to currently implement risk-based surveillance in high-risk populations and, subsequently, improve related interventions strategies against the epidemic at country and regional levels.
Note:	Altres ajuts: CERCA Programme/Generalitat de Catalunya
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	ARIMA modelling ; MERS-CoV ; Seasonality ; Surveillance ; Time-dependent reproductive number
Published in:	Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 147 (2019) , art. e21, ISSN 1469-4409

DOI: 10.1017/S0950268818002728
PMID: 30293534

10 p, 657.6 KB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Health sciences and biosciences > Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA-IRTA)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles