Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models : where do we stand?
Paschalis, Athanasios (Imperial College London)
Fatichi, Simone (ETH Zürich. Institute of Environmental Engineering)
Zscheischler, Jakob (Universität Bern. Centre for Climate Change Research)
Ciais, Philippe (Centre national de la recherche scientifique. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Bahn, Michael (University of Innsbruck. Institute of Ecology)
Boysen, Lena (University of Innsbruck. Institute of Ecology)
Chang, Jinfeng (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L'Environnement)
De Kauwe, Martin (University of New South Wales)
Estiarte, Marc (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Goll, Daniel (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Hanson, Paul J. (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)
Harper, Anna B. (University of Exeter. College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Science)
Hou, Enqing (Northern Arizona University)
Kigel, Jaime (Universitah ha-Ivrit bi-Yerushalayim)
Knapp, Alan K. (Colorado State University. Department of Biology)
Larsen, Klaus Steenberg (Københavns Universitet. Institut for Geovidenskab og Naturforvaltning)
Li, Wei (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Lienert, Sebastian (University of Bern)
Luo, Yiqi (Tsinghua University. Department of Earth System Science)
Meir, Patrick (Australian National University. Research School of Biology)
Nabel, Julia E. M. S. (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)
Ogaya Inurrigarro, Romà (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Parolari, Anthony J. (Marquette University)
Peng, Changhui (Université du Québec à Montréal. Department of Biological Sciences)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Pongratz, Julia (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)
Rambal, Serge (Université de Montpellier)
Schmidt, Inger K. (University of Copenhagen)
Shi, Hao (Auburn University)
Sternberg, Marcelo (Tel-Aviv. University. Department of Molecular Biology & Ecology of Plants)
Tian, Hanqin (Auburn University)
Tschumi, Elisabeth (University of Bern)
Ukkola, Anna (University of New South Wales)
Vicca, Sara (University of Antwerp. Biology Department. Centre of Excellence PLECO)
Viovy, Nicolas (Centre national de la recherche scientifique. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Wang, Ying-Ping (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)
Wang, Zhuonan (Auburn University)
Williams, Karina (Met Office Hadley Centre)
Wu, Donghai (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Zhu, Qiuan (Northwest A&F University)

Data:	2020
Resum:	Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter-model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water-limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily-monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal-annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter-model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.
Ajuts:	European Commission 610028 European Commission 226701
Drets:	Tots els drets reservats.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Matèria:	Drought ; Irrigation ; Rainfall manipulation experiment ; Terrestrial biosphere models
Publicat a:	Global change biology, Vol. 26, Issue 6 (June 2020) , p. 3336-3355, ISSN 1365-2486

DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15024

Postprint 36 p, 1.0 MB

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