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Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
Lotze, Heike K.. (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology)
Tittensor, Derek P. (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology)
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology)
Eddy, Tyler D. (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology)
Cheung, William W. L. (University of British Columbia. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries)
Galbraith, Eric (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Barange, Manuel (University of Tasmania. Centre for Marine Socioecology)
Barrier, Nicolas (University of Montpellier. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)
Bianchi, Daniele (University of California. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences)
Blanchard, Julia (University of Tasmania. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies)
Bopp, Laurent (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace des sciences de l'environnement global)
Büchner, Matthias (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Bulman, Catherine (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. Marine and Atmospheric Research (Hobart, Austràlia))
Carozza, David A. (McGill University. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences)
Christensen, Villy (University of British Columbia. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries)
Coll, Marta (University of Montpellier. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)
Dunne, Johan (Princeton University. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Fulton, Elizabeth A. (University of Tasmania. Centre for Marine Socioecology)
Jennings, Simon (University of East Anglia. School of Environmental Sciences)
Jones, Miranda C. (University of British Columbia. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries)
Mackinson, Steve (Sottish Pelagic Fishermen's Association. Heritage House)
Maury, Olivier (University of Montpellier. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)
Niiranen, Susa (Stockholm University. RStockholm Resilience Centre)
Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo (Instituto del Mar del Perú)
Roy, Tilla (University of Tasmania. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies)
Fernandes, Jose A. (AZTI Tecnalia. Marine Research Division)
Schewe, Jacob (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Shin, Yunne-Jai (University of Montpellier. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)
Silva, Tiago A. M. (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science. Lowestoft Laboratory)
Steenbeek, Jeroen (Ecopath International Initiative)
Stock, Charles (Princeton University. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Verley, Philippe (AMAP Montpellier)
Volkholz, Jan (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Walker, Nicola (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science. Lowestoft Laboratory)
Worm, Boris (Dalhousie University. Department of Biology)

Data: 2019
Resum: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
Ajuts: European Commission 689518
European Commission 682602
European Commission 678193
Nota: Identificadors digitals: Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) i Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601)
Nota: Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552
Drets: Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades. Creative Commons
Llengua: Anglès
Document: Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria: Climate change impacts ; Marine food webs ; Global ecosystem modeling ; Model ; Intercomparison ; Uncertainty
Publicat a: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, issue 26 (June 2019) , p. 12907-12912

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900194116
PMID: 31186360


6 p, 1.2 MB

El registre apareix a les col·leccions:
Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) > Integrated Earth System Dynamics Laboratory (IESD)
Articles > Articles de recerca
Articles > Articles publicats

 Registre creat el 2021-04-14, darrera modificació el 2023-09-21



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