Potential impacts of pandemics on global warming, agricultural production, and biodiversity loss
Xiong, Yuankang (Fudan University. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering)
Wang, Rong (Fudan University. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering)
Gasser, Thomas (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Àustria))
Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Sardans i Galobart, Jordi (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Clark, James H. (University of York. Green Chemistry Centre of Excellence)
Cao, Junji (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Xing, Xiaofan (Fudan University. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering)
Xu, Siqing (Fudan University. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering)
Deng, Yifei (Fudan University. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering)
Wang, Lin (Fudan University. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering)
Chen, Jianmin (Fudan University. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering)
Tang, Xu (Fudan University. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences)
Zhang, Renhe (Fudan University. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences)

Data:	2024
Resum:	The rising frequency of infectious diseases under climate change poses an emerging threat to environmental and agricultural sustainability by consuming large quantities of materials. The demand for crops to produce personal protective equipment (PPE) competes for land and fertilizers, leads to cropland expansion, and accelerates climate change, but the ecological impacts remain unclear. Here we explore the impacts of pandemics on global warming, agricultural production, and biodiversity loss in an Earth system model by developing relationships between consumption of PPE and the rate of infection during COVID-19. Meeting the demand for PPE would increase production of cotton lint, corn, and natural rubber, which accelerates global warming by 0. 2°C with 1. 8% additional species losses by 2100. Our results suggest that the risks of public health, food security, climate change, and ecological integrity have been connected to each other, which should be considered when predicting the impacts of future pandemics.
Ajuts:	Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2020/PANDE-00117 European Commission 101056939 European Commission 101003536
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	COVID-19 ; Pandemics ; Food security ; Climate change ; Ecological integrity ; Mitigation strategy ; Adaptation strategy
Publicat a:	One Earth, Vol. 7, Núm. 4 (April 2024) , p. 697-713, ISSN 2590-3322

DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.02.012

18 p, 3.6 MB

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