Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling
Calheiros, Tomás (Universidade de Lisboa)
Beça, Pedro (Universidade de Lisboa)
Capela Lourenço, Tiago (Universidade de Lisboa)
Eggler, Lukas (Austrian Energy Agency)
Mediavilla, Margarita (Universidad de Valladolid)
Ferreras Alonso, Noelia (Parque Tecnológico de Boecillo)
Ramos, Iván (Parque Tecnológico de Boecillo)
Samsó, Roger (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Distefano, Tiziano (Università degli Studi di Firenze)
Pastor, Amandine V (Institut National de Recherche sur l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement)

Data:	2024
Resum:	The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares.
Ajuts:	European Commission 821105
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Hydropower potential ; IAM (Integrated Assessment Models) ; SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) ; Renewable energy ; Climate change impacts ; Mitigation and adaptation
Publicat a:	Sustainability, Vol. 16, Issue 4 (February 2024) , art. 1548, ISSN 2071-1050

DOI: 10.3390/su16041548

15 p, 2.2 MB

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