Eco-Evolutionary Drivers of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Sequence Type 3 Expansion : Retrospective Machine Learning Approach
Campbell, Amy Marie (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science)
Hauton, Chris (University of Southampton)
van Aerle, Ronny (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science)
Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Genètica i de Microbiologia)

Data:	2024
Resum:	Environmentally sensitive pathogens exhibit ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change that result in the emergence and global expansion of well-adapted variants. It is imperative to understand the mechanisms that facilitate pathogen emergence and expansion, as well as the drivers behind the mechanisms, to understand and prepare for future pandemic expansions. The unique, rapid, global expansion of a clonal complex of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (a marine bacterium causing gastroenteritis infections) named Vibrio parahaemolyticus sequence type 3 (VpST3) provides an opportunity to explore the eco-evolutionary drivers of pathogen expansion. The global expansion of VpST3 was reconstructed using VpST3 genomes, which were then classified into metrics characterizing the stages of this expansion process, indicative of the stages of emergence and establishment. We used machine learning, specifically a random forest classifier, to test a range of ecological and evolutionary drivers for their potential in predicting VpST3 expansion dynamics. We identified a range of evolutionary features, including mutations in the core genome and accessory gene presence, associated with expansion dynamics. A range of random forest classifier approaches were tested to predict expansion classification metrics for each genome. The highest predictive accuracies (ranging from 0. 722 to 0. 967) were achieved for models using a combined eco-evolutionary approach. While population structure and the difference between introduced and established isolates could be predicted to a high accuracy, our model reported multiple false positives when predicting the success of an introduced isolate, suggesting potential limiting factors not represented in our eco-evolutionary features. Regional models produced for 2 countries reporting the most VpST3 genomes had varying success, reflecting the impacts of class imbalance. These novel insights into evolutionary features and ecological conditions related to the stages of VpST3 expansion showcase the potential of machine learning models using genomic data and will contribute to the future understanding of the eco-evolutionary pathways of climate-sensitive pathogens.
Ajuts:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2021-127107NB-I00 Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2021/SGR-00526
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Pathogen expansion ; Climate change ; Machine learning ; Ecology ; Evolution ; Vibrio parahaemolyticus ; Sequencing ; Sequence type 3 ; VpST3 ; Genomics
Publicat a:	JMIR Bioinformatics and Biotechnology, Vol. 5 (November 2024) , art. e62747, ISSN 2563-3570

DOI: 10.2196/62747
PMID: 39607996

19 p, 938.9 KB

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